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MTZ

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Thesis. Record $21.4B backlog with $1B of sequential organic growth in power delivery and clean energy — but the communications segment is deteriorating and management guided it lower, making this Quanta's weaker twin.
Reviewed 19 Sep 2026, after Q2 2026 results. Next review after Q3 2026 earnings on 29 Oct 2026.

What it does

MasTec is an infrastructure construction contractor working across power delivery, clean energy, pipelines and communications. It competes directly with
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PWR for utility and transmission work. CEO is Jose Ramon Mas.
Two details shape how the backlog should be read. About 40% sits under master service agreements that are cancellable, and roughly 40% of the total is expected to convert to revenue during 2026. Separately, there is a balance of unapproved change orders — work performed and booked as revenue before the client has formally agreed to pay for it. Both are normal in this industry; both are places where a headline number can shrink quietly.
Half this company tracks the grid buildout and half tracks telecom capex. They move on unrelated cycles, which is why the ticker can lag the theme it appears to belong to.

Bull case

  • Q2 2026 revenue $4.37B (+23%), adjusted EBITDA $384M (+40%), adjusted EPS $2.22 (+49%) — records across nearly every key metric, with margin expansion outpacing revenue growth
  • Record 18-month backlog $21.39B at 30 June, up $4.9B YoY and $1.1B sequentially, at a 1.2x book-to-bill — and the sequential increase was organic
  • Segment mix: Clean Energy & Infrastructure $7.79B, Power Delivery $6.35B, Communications $5.46B, Pipeline $1.79B. Growth is led by the two segments most exposed to the grid and datacentre buildout
  • Acquired Superior Group, adding roughly $1.4B of 18-month backlog
  • Diversification across several infrastructure verticals smooths any single end-market downturn

Bear case

  • Communications margins declined. Management cited "execution challenges on certain projects coupled with higher indirect fuel and equipment expenses"
  • Management guided lower wireless revenue in H2 2026 than H1, blaming delays in equipment availability for new spectrum rollouts. A guided sequential decline in a segment is a real problem, not a timing note
  • ~$200M of unapproved change orders outstanding — described as ordinary-course, but it is revenue recognised before the client has agreed to pay it
  • ~40% of backlog sits under cancellable master service agreements
  • Competes head-on with
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    PWR    , which has a far larger backlog ($53.4B), better margins and stronger cash conversion
  • Fixed-price contract risk on complex projects
  • Pipeline and oil-and-gas exposure is unrelated to the AI thesis and adds cyclicality

Major customers

  • Electric utilities and transmission owners — the Power Delivery segment, the primary growth driver
  • Renewable energy developers — solar, wind and storage project construction
  • Telecom carriers and wireless operators — the Communications segment, currently the problem area, with spectrum rollout delays hitting H2 2026
  • Pipeline and midstream energy operators — the legacy oil and gas business
  • Government and municipal infrastructure customers
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Read-through. MasTec's Power Delivery backlog tracks the same utility capex cycle as
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PWR — when utilities commit to transmission and interconnection for datacentres, both benefit, and the two backlogs are best read as one signal about how much grid work has actually been let. But MasTec's communications exposure is a genuine divergence from the AI thesis, driven by telecom spectrum rollouts and carrier capex on a separate cycle. That is why MTZ can underperform PWR even when the grid theme is working, and it is the reason to prefer the segment detail over the headline backlog here. It installs equipment made by
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ETN and
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FPS, so their order books lead its revenue.

What would change the view

  1. Whether communications margins stabilise — the specific stated problem
  2. H2 2026 wireless revenue against the guided decline
  3. Power Delivery segment growth in isolation from the rest of the company
  4. Unapproved change order balance — whether it converts or grows
  5. Backlog organic growth versus acquired, as Superior Group annualises
  6. Margin comparison against Quanta on the same type of work — the cleanest test of whether the gap is structural

Update log

19 Sep 2026 — Converted to the standard template. Current through Q2; no new disclosures since. Brought the cancellable-MSA share and the backlog segment split up from the properties into the body, since they are what distinguishes this backlog from Quanta's.
Q2 2026 — Revenue $4.37B (+23%), adjusted EBITDA $384M (+40%), adjusted EPS $2.22 (+49%). Record 18-month backlog $21.39B (+$4.9B YoY, +$1.1B QoQ organic), book-to-bill 1.2x. Communications margins down; H2 wireless revenue guided below H1. ~$200M of unapproved change orders outstanding.
Probabilities: strengthen ~45% / weaken ~38%.
Research and education only — not investment advice.