Severe for large gas turbines. All 4 warning signs are red. Confidence: high.
The rating covers large gas turbines, where the evidence is strongest. Smaller on-site options like engines, aeroderivative turbines and fuel cells have different supply conditions. They're covered below as alternatives, not scored.
GE Vernova, the largest maker, has agreements signed into 2031. It expects most of its 2030 output to be sold this year, and over half of 2031 on contract by year-end. That includes slot reservations, which aren't firm orders. Its gas equipment orders are priced higher than in late 2025, though part of that reflects a richer equipment mix.
Outlook: makers are expanding, but new orders still land in 2030–2031. A turbine's delivery slot is not the date a data center gets power. Fuel supply, permits, construction of the rest of the plant and testing come after.
New here? Skip to Background below for the basics. Coming back? Start with What changed.
This month
October 2026 · Updated Oct 4 · Next update after GE Vernova's Q3 results
What changed since last month
First reading. From next month this section leads with what moved and why.
Scorecard (large gas turbines)
Warning sign | What we saw | Reading | Source |
Long waits | GE Vernova: "We have agreements signed into '31." Mitsubishi says large-turbine orders booked this spring are for delivery between 2028 and 2030. | 🔴 Yes | |
Orders above supply | GE Vernova's firm gas backlog rose from 44 GW to 53 GW in one quarter, and slot reservations from 56 GW to 63 GW. Even firm backlog alone is more than two years of its roughly 20 GW a year of output. Siemens Energy's Gas Services orders were 2.7 times revenue in the quarter. | 🔴 Yes | |
Prices going up | GE Vernova: "first half 2026 orders were priced more than 20% above 4Q '25 equipment orders." That's dollars per kW, and GE Vernova says it partly reflects "a higher mix of aeroderivatives versus heavy-duty gas turbines and incremental combined cycle equipment," so it isn't a like-for-like price rise. It expects second-half orders at the higher end of 10–20 points above late 2025. Siemens Energy says gas pricing "remains attractive." | 🔴 Yes | |
New capacity not enough | GE Vernova is expanding to 24 GW a year in 2028 and 30 GW in 2030. Yet it says most of 2030's output "will already be sold this year," and over half of 2031 will be on contract by year-end, counting firm orders and reservations. | 🔴 Yes |
Score: 4 red, 0 green, 0 mixed, 0 unknown = 🔴 Severe for large gas turbines. All four signs are confirmed red with recent data, so confidence is high. The price sign is red because GE Vernova's prices are rising, but the size of the rise includes mix effects.
Dates to watch
Oct 28 (expected): GE Vernova Q3 results. Watch firm backlog versus reservations, 2031 bookings, and pricing per kW.
Oct 27 and Nov 4 (expected): Bloom Energy (Oct 27) and Caterpillar (Nov 4) results. Watch firm orders and installed capacity for on-site power, not just customer approvals.
Nov 11 (expected): Siemens Energy full-year results.
H2 2026: Mitsubishi's promised update on its capacity expansion.
"Expected" dates come from earnings calendars. The company hasn't announced them yet.
Status history
- Oct 2026: 🔴 Severe (4 red), high confidence. First reading.
Background
Reference. Updated when the facts change, not every month.
What it is
A gas turbine burns natural gas to spin a generator, much like a jet engine bolted to the ground. Large turbines are one of the main ways to add big amounts of power that runs day and night.
Where it sits: Natural gas → gas turbine → generator → transformer → grid, or directly to a data center ("behind the meter")
Turbines matter twice for AI. Utilities need them to add power to the grid, and some data centers buy their own to avoid waiting for a grid connection.
When something is short, two things happen. The seller can charge more and stays fully booked. The buyer waits. Same shortage, opposite effect on the stock.
From factory slot to working power
A turbine's delivery date isn't when a data center gets power. After the turbine ships, a project still needs:
- Fuel: a gas pipeline connection and supply contract.
- Permits: air and other permits for a new power plant.
- The rest of the plant: construction of everything around the turbine, often by a separate engineering firm.
- Testing and commissioning before it runs commercially.
So a slot reserved for 2030 means power some time after that, not in 2030.
Why can't they just build more?
- Three big makers. GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries build most large gas turbines.
- The hardest parts are specialized. The hot-section blades are cast from special alloys by a small number of suppliers.
- Makers are expanding with discipline. Siemens Energy says it prioritizes "value over volume." GE Vernova is expanding mainly within existing factories.
- Reservations fill the books early. Buyers pay to reserve production slots years ahead, which pushes delivery dates out for everyone else.
How big is it?
Measure | Number |
GE Vernova firm gas backlog | 53 GW, up from 44 GW a quarter earlier. |
GE Vernova slot reservations (not firm orders) | 63 GW, up from 56 GW. Firm backlog plus reservations: 116 GW, with at least 125 GW expected by end-2026. |
GE Vernova yearly output | About 20 GW now. 24 GW in 2028, 30 GW in 2030. |
GE Vernova customers | About 20% data centers, 80% traditional customers like utilities. |
Mitsubishi large-turbine backlog | 35 GW, up from 23 GW a year earlier. |
Siemens Energy Gas Services backlog | €73B. Quarterly orders up 62% year over year. |
The alternatives (not scored)
Each alternative has its own supply and cost picture. Waits for large turbines push some buyers toward them, but none is a simple swap.
- Aeroderivative turbines: smaller turbines based on jet engines. They start quickly and suit flexible use, but cost more per kW and are less efficient than large combined-cycle plants. GE Vernova's own mix shift toward them shows demand is spilling over.
- Reciprocating engines (Caterpillar, Wärtsilä): large piston engines that come in modular units and can be installed faster. They need more maintenance because of their many moving parts, and still need a gas supply.
- Fuel cells (Bloom Energy): make electricity from natural gas through a chemical reaction rather than burning it. They can be deployed in modules but typically cost more per kW, and their cell stacks need periodic replacement. They still run on gas unless hydrogen is available.
- Batteries: store energy rather than generate it, so they need a charging source. They help with backup, smoothing demand and hybrid systems, but they aren't a standalone replacement for continuous generation.
Who wins, who waits
The effects below are our interpretation, not company statements.
Company | Likely effect | Why |
Wins | The market leader, with agreements into 2031 and higher pricing per kW. Total company backlog is $176B. | |
Siemens Energy (Germany: ENR), Mitsubishi Heavy (7011.T) | Wins | The other two big makers, both with growing turbine backlogs and pricing they describe as attractive or strong. |
Possible winner | Its engines and turbines offer a faster route to on-site power. Power & Energy sales rose 17%, led by data centers. How much it gains depends on its own capacity and customers' economics. | |
Possible winner | Revenue rose 165% in Q2 2026, and management says all major US hyperscalers have approved its systems. Approval isn't a committed purchase or deployed capacity, so firm orders are the thing to watch. | |
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) | Wins | Casts the hot-section blades, the hardest parts to make. It says it has more than 50% of the global market for industrial gas turbine blades, and its gas turbine revenue rose 38% in Q2 2026. |
Wärtsilä (WRT1V.HE) | Wins | Sells large gas engines as an alternative to turbines. |
Doncasters (DPC) | Possible winner | One of the few other companies that casts hot-section parts for gas turbines and jet engines. It also makes its own superalloys. Listed on the NYSE in June 2026, so it has no public earnings record yet and doesn't disclose how much of its revenue comes from gas turbines. |
Mixed | New gas plants they want to build wait for turbines, but slow new supply supports power prices for the plants they already own. | |
META, Microsoft, Oracle, data center developers | Exposed | Anyone building their own power plant next to a data center joins the same turbine queue as the utilities. |
The takeaway: severe constraints in large gas turbines are well supported. The size of the pricing gains and the opportunity for alternatives vary by technology.
When does it end, and what could replace it?
- 2026–2030: GE Vernova lifts output from about 20 GW to 30 GW a year. Mitsubishi plans to double capacity from 2024 levels. Siemens Energy raised medium-sized turbine output from about 50 to about 80 units this fiscal year.
- 2031: the delivery year now being booked. Working power comes later, after construction and commissioning.
- Alternatives: engines, aeroderivatives and fuel cells can fill some gaps, each with its own cost and maintenance trade-offs. Bloom said in late 2025 it was on track for 2 GW of yearly production capacity by the end of 2026.
- Other limits: turbines aren't the only thing holding back data center power. Grid connections, permits and other equipment matter too. See Grid access & power availability.
What could go wrong for this view
- Reservations don't convert. Slot reservations aren't firm orders. If data center plans are scaled back, some could lapse.
- Expansion adds up. All three makers are expanding at once, which could ease waits after 2028.
- Alternatives take more share than expected, if their costs and supply improve.
How to read a change
Good easing
Delivery dates move closer because factories expanded, while orders keep growing.
Bad easing
Slot reservations get cancelled or don't turn into firm orders. That would signal data center or utility plans being scaled back.
What would change our view
- Gets tighter: GE Vernova starts booking 2032, or like-for-like turbine prices keep rising.
- Gets easier (good): makers announce faster expansion while firm backlogs keep growing.
- Gets easier (bad): firm backlog stops growing, or reservations fail to turn into firm orders.
Past scorecards
Each month the previous scorecard moves here, newest first.
- None yet. October 2026 is the first reading.
Evidence and sources
Company statements
- GE Vernova Q2 2026 call (Jul 22, 2026): gas backlog 44 to 53 GW and reservations 56 to 63 GW; at least 125 GW under contract by year-end; "We have agreements signed into '31"; most of 2030's 30 GW "will already be sold this year, and over half of the '31 gigawatts will be on contract by end of this year"; "first half 2026 orders were priced more than 20% above 4Q '25 equipment orders, reflecting a conversion of higher-priced SRAs to backlog"; "In 2Q, we booked a higher dollar per kW price in orders, given a higher mix of aeroderivatives versus heavy-duty gas turbines and incremental combined cycle equipment as SRAs converted to orders"; second-half pricing at the higher end of 10–20 points above 4Q '25; output 20 GW run rate, 24 GW in 2028, 30 GW in 2030; about 80% traditional customers and 20% data centers; total backlog $176B. Transcript
- Siemens Energy Q3 fiscal 2026 call (Aug 5, 2026): Gas Services orders €10B, up 62%, book-to-bill 2.7, backlog €73B; "Pricing remains attractive"; "value over volume"; medium-sized turbines from about 50 to about 80 units. Transcript
- Mitsubishi Heavy (Aug 13, 2026): large-frame backlog 35 GW, from 23 GW; Q1 orders for delivery 2028–2030; doubling capacity from 2024 levels. Utility Dive
- Caterpillar Q2 2026 (Aug 4, 2026): Power & Energy sales $8.24B, up 17%; growth in large reciprocating engines and turbines "primarily in data center applications." Release
- Bloom Energy Q2 2026 (Jul 28, 2026): revenue $1,065M, up 165.5%; management says all major US hyperscalers have validated and approved its systems. Release. Target of 2 GW yearly capacity by Dec 2026. Utility Dive, Oct 30 2025
- Batteries store energy rather than generate it. US Department of Energy
- Where sources disagree: most coverage frames turbines as a hard bottleneck. Reservations can still lapse, and other constraints like grid connections and permits matter as much for many data center projects.
Words used on this page
- Gas turbine: an engine that burns natural gas to spin a generator.
- Heavy-duty / large-frame turbine: the largest type, used in big power plants.
- Combined cycle: a plant that uses a gas turbine's waste heat to make extra power with a steam turbine. More efficient, but more equipment.
- Aeroderivative turbine: a smaller turbine based on a jet engine. Starts fast, costs more per kW.
- Reciprocating engine: a large piston engine, like a giant car engine, used for on-site power.
- Fuel cell: makes electricity from gas through a chemical reaction instead of burning it.
- Commissioning: testing a new power plant and bringing it into commercial operation.
- kW / GW (kilowatt / gigawatt): units of power. 1 GW = 1,000,000 kW.
- Slot reservation (SRA, slot reservation agreement): a paid place in the factory's future production line. Not yet a firm order.
- Backlog: firm orders received but not yet delivered.
- Book-to-bill: new orders divided by revenue. Above 1 means orders are arriving faster than products ship.
- Mix effect: when an average price changes because buyers bought a different blend of products, not because the same product got more expensive.
Invest Deeper · Educational research, not investment advice.
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